Will Nikki Haley catch up to Ron DeSantis before the third GOP primary debate?
16
350Ṁ7108
resolved Nov 9
Resolved
NO

Will resolve YES as soon as Haley either passes or ties DeSantis in 538's aggregation of polls before the third GOP primary debate. Otherwise NO.

Haley unexpectedly caught up to Ramaswamy in polls the day before the second debate. Can she catch up to DeSantis by the time the third debate begins?

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D 13.9,

H 9.0

DeSantis 14.0

Haley 8.9

D: 13.6, H: 7.9

D: 12.9%,

H: 7.6%

D: 12.9%, H: 7.4%

D: 13.9%, H: 7.9%

D: 14.1%, H: 8.0%

D: 13.5%, H: 7.6%

predictedYES

@AaronBreckenridge Interesting to look at the state polls. She's up in NH and third in Iowa. The War and Speakergate have sucked up so much air that there might not be enough bandwidth for people to focus on these second tier candidates.

D: 13.4%, H: 7.2%

D: 12.7%, H: 6.6%

D: 12.5%, H: 6.5%

D: 13.5%, H: 6.1%

D: 14.7%, H: 7.4%

D: 14.4%, H: 7.3%

D: 13.7%, H: 7.9%

D: 13.7%, H: 7.8%

D: 13.8%, H: 6.1%

There is not going to be renewed interest in DeSantis. He will keep falling. The only question is whose stock is rising. Only reason to like Haley might be because it seemingly moderates Rs on abortion. Hence I am a mild YES.

I think you’re right. She’s got some big financial donors. She’s young. She’s not afraid to call out the R establishment on deficit spending. She can win suburban women on moderate abortion restrictions. And she’s experienced.

If there were a market for who gets attacked most in tonight’s debate, my money would be on her.

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