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MANIFOLD
How many Texas state senators will vote to convict Ken Paxton?
12
Ṁ590Ṁ1k
resolved Sep 16
100%1.9%
13-16
0.4%
0-12
37%
17-20
50%
21-24
9%
25-28
3%
>= 29

Ken Paxton's trial in the Texas senate begins on September 5, 2023. Each side will have 24 hours to present their case.

There are 31 senators (12 Democrats). 2/3 of the senate (nominally 21 senators) must vote to convict to remove him from office.

Angela Paxton cannot vote in the trial, but her presence counts towards the total.

My plan is to close the market once voting begins and resolve once the vote totals are known. I will not participate in this market.

If the trial is dismissed (which only takes a majority vote), this will resolve N/A.

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Are we going to have a maximum of two Senators who vote to convict on any Article?

Looking pretty good for Paxton’s acquittal. Will resolve once I’m able to get some time to count all the senators who voted to convict.

@AaronBreckenridge

https://www.kxan.com/news/texas-politics/paxton-impeachment/heres-how-each-texas-senator-voted-in-the-impeachment-trial-of-ken-paxton/

Last Chart shows 14 senators voted Yes on at least one article to impeach. I think the media misled us about the probabilities for him being impeached by a large margin. Base rate cynicism would have earned me a lot of mana.

@parhizj Confirmed the 14 count from DMN table and resolved.

Voting is beginning

@KevinLobLaw Thanks, closed

Currently set to close tomorrow at 9am, but as I said in the description, I will strive to keep this open until voting begins, so expect that to shift depending on where we end up today.

definitely some fireworks yesterday.

https://www.texastribune.org/2023/09/13/ken-paxton-impeachment-trial-laura-olson-drew-wicker/?utm_source=Texas+Tribune+Newsletters&utm_campaign=e3b50698ab-trib-newsletters-thebrief&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_-e3b50698ab-%5BLIST_EMAIL_ID%5D&mc_cid=e3b50698ab&mc_eid=b9eb20f02b

The House has rested its case against Ken Paxton after a chaotic day for the prosecution
The House prosecutors failed to call a star witness and battled with the defense attorneys over allegations the suspended attorney general had been bribed by Nate Paul.

Updated close to Thursday at 6pm.

Will close earlier if I see that the lawyers have stopped deliberating and it has move to the Senate for deliberation.

https://www.texastribune.org/2023/09/05/ken-paxton-impeachment-trial-live-updates/?utm_campaign=trib-social&utm_content=1693925996&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter#c03cdc15-edeb-4431-a570-3578c77d7e7d

Paxton trial updates: Senators taking key preliminary votes as proceedings begin
Watch a livestream of the attorney general’s impeachment trial and get the latest updates as senators weigh his political future.

Pretrial motion to dismiss charges failed, but it does give a decent baseline for prediction.

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