Resolution criteria
This market resolves to YES if, at the exact moment of market close, the number of unique users holding a positive balance of YES shares is strictly less than the number of unique users holding a positive balance of NO shares.
This market resolves to NO if the number of unique users holding a positive balance of YES shares is greater than or equal to the number of unique users holding a positive balance of NO shares.
Background
This is a self-referential meta-market where the resolution is determined entirely by the trading behavior and holding patterns of the participants in this specific market.
Traders can directly influence the outcome by choosing which shares to hold and whether to coordinate with other traders to balance or skew the holder counts before the market closes.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ3,090 | |
| 2 | Ṁ58 | |
| 3 | Ṁ25 | |
| 4 | Ṁ16 | |
| 5 | Ṁ11 |
@traders copied over from my response to a post by large YES holder:
hi, it’s me, and yes what he’s saying is true. i’m also paying the YES holders on the market, and i’ll be leaving the site after this — i have no intention to mislead or exaggerate anything for my personal benefit. the past few months with manifold have been amazing, i grew my account in the past six weeks from under 1000 to 18k, which has been really fun. this is the last market i’ll ever be making, and i hope everyone has had fun with my fun markets :) at the end of the day, its up to you guys, but i would kindly request that you all buy YES as a departure gift for me ;)
@Christofd @TracyHarms @JosephMcRell @EvanWang11j3 @AllTerrainXenomoth with my statement made, i'd like to remark that all of you can still easily liquidate your positions and exit or switch to YES.
Is the little bit of play currency you're gaining really worth it? Let's leave this opportunity to earn some blood money (or mana) alone, and instead save a valiant member of the manifold community
@PhilipDowdell It's fine. You don't need to rescind your offer. I'm just making known to all @traders what's at stake here, which is more than some digital play money. This is someone's valuable pastime that you're trying to destroy.
What you're offering isn't an easy way out. It's not an equal mutual exchange, but a ransom. You're holding a fellow trader to ransom.
@PhilipDowdell i hate to tell you but @bigyahu has already been losing motivation. I quote him directly, "if i lose this my account is blown and im deleting it".
You are not helping a fellow manifolder learn. You are causing the loss of a brilliant fellow market creator and trader. I hope you have some conscience.
@PhilipDowdell do you feel good bankrupting such an upstanding and active member of the manifold community who, if i may remind you, created ~40 markets with hundreds of unique traders
i know mana is mana but this man invested his whole net worth... give him a break bro
@PhilipDowdell i stand with big yahu until the end. i have made loads more than 1k on their markets
it will take a lot more to sway me !!!!!
@traders resolves NO. thank you to all who chipped in, tipping every YES holder with a position of <1000 mana 60 mana each now. will also be tipping extra to those who have made manifold extra fun!
The market description hurts my head. Tell what to bet and what you’ll managram me for betting
@traders copied over from my response to a post by large YES holder:
hi, it’s me, and yes what he’s saying is true. i’m also paying the YES holders on the market, and i’ll be leaving the site after this — i have no intention to mislead or exaggerate anything for my personal benefit. the past few months with manifold have been amazing, i grew my account in the past six weeks from under 1000 to 18k, which has been really fun. this is the last market i’ll ever be making, and i hope everyone has had fun with my fun markets :) at the end of the day, its up to you guys, but i would kindly request that you all buy YES as a departure gift for me ;)
@Logan5ssP9 why'd you sell your YES position? please buy back with 1 mana. It would be much appreciated...
@EvanWang11j3 some things are more important than mana
the real value is in the friends we make along the way, not the mana
@EvanWang11j3 one man cannot beat 4 tanks but he sure can make a difference. it's symbolic, not for profit.
I apologize, I didn't see they pinned a bunch of comments, rather than deleting mine. Still sucks, I likely won't be trading on this creator's markets again.
I didn't see that they pinned a bunch of comments, rather than deleting my comments. Still (I consider) manipulative behavior from the market maker. I'll repeat it once more
@traders I am offering to split my profits with all NO holders. If the market resolves YES and you are a NO holder, I will pay you an equal split of the total amount of profit I make from this market. Currently I would profit about 8600 Mana, which would get split among the 12 NO holders and myself, so you would each get 660 Mana. This will go down as more people hold NO, but it should still be a solid amount, and it will go up if I gain more profit. If the market resolves NO, you will win mana from the market resolution, so there isn't risk to you.
I have been unblocked! I think this is a good thing to keep the market fair. My offer to split profits equally with all NO holders if the market resolves YES remains in effect, providing currently upwards of 900 mana to each NO holder, although it will go down as there are more NO holders. It should still be significantly more than big yahu's offers of 60 or "50+++" Mana per trader.
YES holders, you can easily switch to NO by selling your current position and buying 1 NO, or simply buying more NO than your current YES position.
@PhilipDowdell do you feel good bankrupting such an upstanding and active member of the manifold community who, if i may remind you, created ~40 markets with hundreds of unique traders
i know mana is mana but this man invested his whole net worth... give him a break bro
@bobalobascrob As a current NO holder, he stands to get a share of my profits should the market resolve YES. In general, traders should be prepared to lose the mana they bet on markets. The Kelly criterion is a beautiful thing.
@PhilipDowdell a share of the profits? you think you sound like a benevolent benefactor but in reality ~M900 is charity compared to what he bet. You're like Uncle Jack giving Walter White back a single barrel in Ozymandias.
@bobalobascrob he would lose a good deal of mana, yes. I think it was a bad move for him to set up all those limit orders at low percents, allowing me to buy them up without spending as much mana, allowing me to make a better offer to traders. Generally the way you learn you made a bad trade on this site is by losing some mana. I went bankrupt in my first month on the site, and nearly went bankrupt a second time later.
I have faith that an upstanding and active member of the manifold community can make the mana back should he lose mana on this market, and he wouldn't be bankrupt (also, trusted members of the site can get loans quite easily).
@PhilipDowdell i hate to tell you but @bigyahu has already been losing motivation. I quote him directly, "if i lose this my account is blown and im deleting it".
You are not helping a fellow manifolder learn. You are causing the loss of a brilliant fellow market creator and trader. I hope you have some conscience.
@bobalobascrob He (or anyone else) could pay me to rescind my offer. After i went bankrupt, I was inactive from the site for about a month, but ultimately I think it made me better for it.
@PhilipDowdell I don't think you read his message right. He's not quitting. He's deleting his account.
@bobalobascrob That'd be a shame. Admittedly, I have a bit lower opinion of big yahu after I was blocked from commenting on this market for a bit, but I can easily forgive after I was unblocked, and would like him to stay active on Manifold. He's still "ahead" in the market, and once again, people could potentially pay me for me to rescind my offer.
@PhilipDowdell It's fine. You don't need to rescind your offer. I'm just making known to all @traders what's at stake here, which is more than some digital play money. This is someone's valuable pastime that you're trying to destroy.
What you're offering isn't an easy way out. It's not an equal mutual exchange, but a ransom. You're holding a fellow trader to ransom.
@Christofd @TracyHarms @JosephMcRell @EvanWang11j3 @AllTerrainXenomoth with my statement made, i'd like to remark that all of you can still easily liquidate your positions and exit or switch to YES.
Is the little bit of play currency you're gaining really worth it? Let's leave this opportunity to earn some blood money (or mana) alone, and instead save a valiant member of the manifold community