The 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference or Conference of the Parties of the UNFCCC, more commonly referred to as COP28, will be the 28th United Nations Climate Change conference, held from November 30 until December 12, 2023, at the Expo City, Dubai. The conference has been held annually since the first UN climate agreement in 1992. It is used by governments to agree on policies to limit global temperature rises and adapt to impacts associated with climate change.
Due to the growing conflict in the Middle East between Israel and Hamas (and potentially Hezbollah, Iran, the US, and other parties), there are some concerns that the location in Dubai may be logistically complicated, dangerous, or politically impractical.
This resolves YES if COP28 is relocated to another country (most likely out of the region), cancelled altogether, or postponed substantially (not just a few days, but substantially enough that attendees to COP28 would not be able to attend on their current reservations (into 2024). I would anticipate that full out war between Israel or the US and Iran would be highly likely to result in COP28's cancellation or relocation.
I will be attending COP28 as a delegate with observer status and it will be highly in my interest for the event to continue as planned.
I may bet in this market, as the resolution criteria is pretty cut and dry. I may also like to hedge against cancellation by betting "YES" as I would be really disappointed if the event was cancelled. If there's some sort of unforseen edge case, I would allow other Manifold superusers to decide the resolution for me if I am biased by holding shares in the market.