Will Jordan Chiles's bronze medal be reinstated?
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Jun 30
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Jordan Chiles's bronze medal in the floor finals was taken away by the CAS and IOC, due to a controversy:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gymnastics_at_the_2024_Summer_Olympics_%E2%80%93_Women%27s_floor#Controversy

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/11/world/olympics/jordan-chiles-gymnastics-medal.html

This resolves YES if Chiles and the Americans' appeal is granted and she is allowed to keep the bronze medal / her bronze medal is reinstated. If both Chiles and Barbosu (or Chiles and Barbosu and Voinea, for that matter) receive bronze medals, this will still resolve YES.

This resolves NO if not.

Physical possession of the bronze medal is irrelevant to this market. I may extend the close time if arbitration continues past close date. I will not bet in this market, except maybe one mana to boost trader count :-P

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Extended again

Extending close date again; arbitration still live at Swiss tribunal

@benshindel I read it’s likely to take months. I wouldn’t time decay the market until a decision.

@benshindel really nice work by WaPo!

@Ziddletwix Ya, I wish they applied that level of investigative reporting and audiovisual analysis to like… global conflicts and stuff, but impressive here 😆

Incredibly, CAS did not even attempt to resolve the key discrepancy of the timestamp in the Omega system vs what the FIG rules say about having 1 minute to submit a verbal inquiry. They made no serious effort to find the official who accepted the inquiry so they could testify. They simply accept the timestamp as definitive because it's a piece of evidence that exists.

That's not a basis for appeal by itself, but fortunately there are multiple procedural errors that USAG can pursue. I think it's pretty likely that the Swiss court kicks this back to CAS for a full hearing instead of a rush job.

that article is nuts. embarrassing disaster

@traders im going to extend to wait until the resolution date (Oct 30). If at that time it appears there’s decent odds that the arbitration will continue and may be successful I will continue to extend the market. However, if there isn’t coverage of the topic and it’s not clear the Americans have kept up with this, I may resolve NO then.

It looks probable that the US will/have already submitted some sort of formal arbitration to the Swiss Federal Tribunal. I will probably have to extend the market until that process is resolved, so this might be a longer-term market than intended! FYI traders.

We're still waiting for the full CAS decision to be released, but assuming everyone is basically acting in good faith, the sequence of events seems to be:

0:00 - score posted

0:47 - Landi requests an inquiry

0:55 - Landi restates her request

1:04 - the request is logged in their computer system

CAS apparently has ruled entirely based on the logged time, which isn't in line with what the FIG rules say, 1 minute is how long you have to make a verbal request. Seems like a blatantly wrong, rushed ruling, but who knows if appeals will be successful.

I sure hope everyone involved in this nightmare gets the bronze. What a disaster and emotional roller coaster for all of the athletes involved.

Ya, it's actually nuts that they aren't more willing to give out two bronzes in a situation like this. I don't think Voinea should get one tbh, since I really don't understand the argument in favor. It was a close line call on the mat, and from what I remember, it seemed she did step out and people were just cherry-picking frames to decide she didn't. But that call also wasn't challenged at all by the coaches until a week later, so... sorry I guess.

But for Chiles and Barbosu, ya... both should absolutely get bronze and I don't understand why the IOC is reluctant to do so. It's not gold, just bronze lol

I love it when a question is near 50% :)

bought Ṁ200 YES

Exactly what I needed :)

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