WOW! I knew this would be a fun market.

@bens idk but the odds seem, to me, like they should be around 25-30%! But once again, I cannot bet in this market

@bens extending the market again, since it looks like with this appeal, things are moving!

@bens I guess I'll just overextend myself more to see if it baits anyone into disagreeing.

Appeal granted; CAS will have to re-hear the case. https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/olympics/2026/01/29/jordan-chiles-bronze-medal-cas-new-hearing/74888473007/#

@MachiNi I'm still holding my shares that I acquired at an average of 4%. If I wasn't far and away the highest Yes holder I'd be considering buying a little bit more. Getting this far has to mean it's at least 10% right?

This seems, umm... a little too low but I can't bet in this market.

@bens I already have a lot of Yes shares. My true value is well above 2% though.

@Eliza i haven't followed the updates over the past 6 months so i have no true probability but i will bravely volunteer to push the number higher

@Ziddletwix I didn't look up any info before buying more Yes shares a few days ago....my very basic understanding of the situation is that Chiles' team has appealed beyond sporting-specific bodies into "the regular, real world appeals zone". Any time sports escape their containment zone, the rules can kinda go out the window and my conception of "appeals" on anything is that nothing is a foregone conclusion.

Still under review, extending
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/olympics/2025/08/10/jordan-chiles-medal-taken-away-paris-olympics-gymnastics/85542813007/

Seems like the fight is ongoing. https://www.latimes.com/sports/story/2025-03-11/jordan-chiles-bronze-medal-appeal-paris-olympics-ucla

Extended again

@bens are we going to extend again?

Extending close date again; arbitration still live at Swiss tribunal

@benshindel I read it’s likely to take months. I wouldn’t time decay the market until a decision.

Interesting: https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2024/09/19/jordan-chiles-olympics-medal-appeal/

@benshindel really nice work by WaPo!

@Ziddletwix Ya, I wish they applied that level of investigative reporting and audiovisual analysis to like… global conflicts and stuff, but impressive here 😆

https://athlonsports.com/olympics/olympics-legend-nadia-comaneci-has-firm-stance-how-solve-jordan-chiles-medal-controversy

Nadia wants three bronze medals.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5701621/2024/08/14/jordan-chiles-olympic-gymnastics-court-ruling/

Incredibly, CAS did not even attempt to resolve the key discrepancy of the timestamp in the Omega system vs what the FIG rules say about having 1 minute to submit a verbal inquiry. They made no serious effort to find the official who accepted the inquiry so they could testify. They simply accept the timestamp as definitive because it's a piece of evidence that exists.

That's not a basis for appeal by itself, but fortunately there are multiple procedural errors that USAG can pursue. I think it's pretty likely that the Swiss court kicks this back to CAS for a full hearing instead of a rush job.

that article is nuts. embarrassing disaster

@traders im going to extend to wait until the resolution date (Oct 30). If at that time it appears there’s decent odds that the arbitration will continue and may be successful I will continue to extend the market. However, if there isn’t coverage of the topic and it’s not clear the Americans have kept up with this, I may resolve NO then.

It looks probable that the US will/have already submitted some sort of formal arbitration to the Swiss Federal Tribunal. I will probably have to extend the market until that process is resolved, so this might be a longer-term market than intended! FYI traders.