Will FIDE rate Firouzja’s mini-matches “Race to Candidates” tournament?
resolved Jan 3


The French chess federation has organized matches for Firouzja to play to try and take the last rating spot for the 2024 Candidates Tournament. FIDE officials have suggested they are monitoring it and may not rate the games. This resolves NO if FIDE does not rate the tournament, or otherwise causes the effects of it to not count for Candidates qualification, as well as if they force its cancellation mid-event.

See controversy:


I will not be betting in this as it could be slightly subjective (although I don’t quite see how).

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Resolved to NO, but I guess if Firouzja goes to arbitration and forces FIDE to rate the tournament, I’d unresolve and then resolve YES.

From the January rating lists, it looks like FIDE did indeed NOT rate Firouzja’s games. I’m happy to resolve this now, unless ppl think there’s a good chance this goes to arbitration and FIDE is forced to change their decision. Since Firouzja qualified for Candidates regardless, I think it’s unlikely he takes it to arbitration. What do y’all think?

bought Ṁ2,000 of NO
bought Ṁ25 of NO

The new rule about registering 30 days in advance wont be used for the Firouzja case. There is another rule that FIDE can decide to not rate any match if they want to. That rule was there before and thus is it not retroactive application, but normal use of the existing rule.

i can’t bet in this market but I’d be betting it way down at these odds. Y’all are misunderstanding “retroactively”. FIDE only rates tournaments at the end of the month. So for them to not rate Chartres would not be a retroactive decision.

@benshindel And since Firouzja has now qualified regardless, he’ll be much less likely to challenge the decision in arbitration.

predicted YES

@benshindel I understand that the updated rating list will be published in January, but I don't think that's what FIDE meant by retroactively. It may be technically true, but it goes against the plain reading and it wouldn't really make sense for them to tweet it the way they did.

I'm not claiming this is a lock for YES but I think <40 is low and this is closer to a coin flip. Your point about Firouzja winning goes both ways.

@mint I don’t think it goes both ways. Why would he go into a complex arbitration process if the candidates spot isn’t even in the balance? Just for 5 elo points?

@benshindel I’m obviously not 100% sure about what they mean by retroactively, but I’ve seen some chess commentators on twitter give pretty certain takes on it

sold Ṁ10 of YES

@benshindel What makes you think there is even an arbitration process? I haven't seen any proof that FIDE decided not to rate Chatres in the first place. The tournament page was deleted which is a bit strange but if FIDE decided not to rate it I don't think that's the path they'd take.

predicted YES

@benshindel both of these tweets are just speculation. FIDE has proved them self time and time again to be incompetent and as i see it the way to rock the boat the least is continue to rate the tournament.

They would just invite more controversy when it doesn't even make a difference as French fans would be mad they didn't rate it when they said the "retroactively" thing

predicted NO

Why has this gone up?

predicted NO

As far as I can tell, the chartres tournament is still disputed. And Firouzja qualifying for Candidates is disjoint from him qualifying due to the Rouen Open.

bought Ṁ10 NO from 46% to 44%
bought Ṁ25 of YES

@AxelJacobsen i bet it up because as far as I can tell the Chartres tournament is still rated, and now that he has already qualified whether it's rated or not, I don't think FIDE will bother unrating. It's harder to take affirmative action than maintain the status quo. Their new rule already prevents this from happening in the future, no reason to rock the boat now.

Thus, I'm probably a YES buyer below 40. Mostly just a hunch though!

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@AxelJacobsen also, FIDE has announced that their new rule will not apply retroactively https://twitter.com/FIDE_chess/status/1739360015046021621

sold Ṁ111 of NO

@mint Ah thanks!

Why is this so low?

@Weezing No I know, but the arbitration court would be reasonably likely to overturn, no?

@benshindel Although I guess if Firouzja makes the top rating spot anyway in his current open tourney, then he won’t sue…

predicted NO

@benshindel There was some chance, but was there high chance it of being overturned?

I agree that now he probably does not have any reason to even try it and alineate FIDE.

bought Ṁ5 of YES

Will this resolve when the January 2024 rating list gets published?

predicted YES

interestingly, the draw today has pushed this down not up. If Firouzja finishes with a lower rating than So then I would assume the immediate requirement to intervene goes away.

I could see them not rating this tournament regardless to send a message to future organisers though.