Will Anish Giri play in the 2024 FIDE Candidates Tournament?
30
802
490
Apr 3
2%
chance

This resolves positively if Giri is able to qualify and play in the 2024 FIDE Candidates Tournament:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candidates_Tournament_2024

If Giri qualifies for but declines to partipate in the tournament, it will resolve negatively.

If Giri is selected by FIDE as a replacement in the tournament, without qualifying directly, this will still resolve positively.

This market closes at the start of the candidates tournament. If Giri, somehow, participates in the tournament and is paired in the first round, but never manages to play a match due to sickness, protest, or other factors, it will resolve negatively. This market will resolve negatively after the first round of the tournament occuring without Giri being a listed player, or positively upon Giri playing a match in the tournament.

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predicts NO

There might be an arbitrage opportunity between the Giri, So, Dominguez, Gukesh, and Firouzja markets. Last I checked they added to 208, which implies an 8% chance that So will qualify and not play (due to the different wording of that market) I believe.

predicts YES

@MaxMorehead I mean… there’s probably like <10 mana to be gained in that, due to low volume

predicts YES

@MaxMorehead I’m actually surprised it’s not farther off tbh

Thought this said "Amish girl"

predicts NO

A Lenier Dominguez market might also be a good idea.