Refers to the plane - helicopter crash outside of DCA over the Potomac. Resolves to final count of survivors in one month.
I will not trade in this market.
If you feel uncomfortable betting on markets that concern catastrophes and mass casualty events, feel free not to bet, but markets such as these can provide invaluable real-time answers to those impacted by the event in a way that traditional media often cannot.
1,000
3.00@JoshuaWilkes I disagree strongly and a lot has been written on this topic already so I’m sure you can read strong rebuttals to that point.
@benshindel I don't really mind if you disagree or not (it is obvious you would otherwise why make the market?).
It is simply my intention to provide a small amount of social friction to these grim markets by posting some version of what I said above whenever one is made, to register my disapproval and to allow others to register theirs, or indeed disagree with me.
@JoshuaWilkes I'm sure if you had any personal connection to this event (I live a few miles from where it happened), you wouldn't say such a cruel thing. ANY information or clarity for those who seek it is a blessing. This is one of the best services that a website like this can provide and I'm not really sure why you're on a prediction market site if you think otherwise. Feel free to not bet in the market personally if you feel tainted by mixing sacred and profane values, but it's rude and disrespectful to those affected to act like seeking critical information about events like this is somehow "gross" or "serves no purpose". It very obviously "SERVES A PURPOSE".
For example, here is Polymarket's statement on wildfire markets:
"Note on Palisades Wildfire Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events impacting society. The devastating Pacific Palisades fire is one such event, for which Polymarket can yield invaluable real-time answers to those directly impacted in ways traditional media cannot."
@benshindel I fundamentally disagree with your analysis.
The comparison to markets about wildfires misses the mark. That is an evolving event where information like "which way is the fire going?" is potentially life saving.
In the aftermath of a tragedy like an air crash or a bridge collapse it is different. There are potentially victims that are already dead and there are potentially victims that are not. Emergency services are already doing everything they can to save the latter and I don't see a role for prediction markets to help that except in the different set of cases where you have some kind of geographically spread event where decisions on how to deploy resources will play out over hours.
We obviously have very different understandings of how people work. I cannot possibly imagine believing that it would be a blessing for those families somehow still holding out hope to be told that prediction markets think there is 90% chance there are no survivors. (I'm not even going to touch how they would feel to be told people were betting play-money on such a question).
And in reality, no one thinks those families would be checking Manifold so the site is just betting on the result. Which, I repeat, is gross.
I am quite happy on Manifold and I have been for two years. I don't bet on any death markets but I accept that many serve a purpose in providing political or societal information that is useful to think about. But some do not and I think that the site would be better if it left them alone.
@JoshuaWilkes I think that "how would people feel if they were to be told that people were betting play-money on such a question" is an insane heuristic to use for this question.
How would people who lost their job feel if they knew people had been betting about the odds of a recession?
How would athletes whose sports team lost feel if they knew people had been betting on the outcome of the event?
Like... fundamentally unserious argument.
You just said it would be a blessing for those people to have this information, so it is reasonable to think that they would accept the method used to generate it.
But do you? You live a few miles away, why did you not go down to the airport and shouted out live updates from this market? If the information was so desired by the people waiting there for any news, would that not be a social good?
Weather forecasting is good, and it's good that there are websites where people can check the weather. But do you go to your neighbors and yell at them the chance of rain in the morning? What are you even saying?
@benshindel You are not engaging in good faith.
You don't believe that someone who doesn't know if it will rain later and someone who doesn't know if their family member is alive are in the same situation.
