An American Airlines passenger plane that departed from Wichita, Kansas, and a U.S. Army Black Hawk helicopter collided near Reagan National Airport Wednesday evening and crashed into the Potomac River, according to law enforcement, a statement from the airline and people familiar with the incident.
The crash Wednesday night comes after a string of close calls at Reagan National Airport and other airports, beginning in early 2023, that had alarmed officials and the airline industry.
In May 2024, an American Airlines flight aborted a takeoff at National Airport after it was at risk of colliding with a private jet. There had been a similar incident the previous month involving a Southwest Airlines plane and a JetBlue Airways flight.
The Federal Aviation Administration views close calls as a sign that the aviation system is under stress and gathered industry leaders early in 2023 to begin trying to address the problem.
The agency planned to install new technology to help warn air traffic controllers when aircraft were at risk of collision. It also took steps to boost hiring and to address complaints of fatigue among controllers.
The National Transportation Safety Board has investigated several of the most serious cases, and lawmakers have held hearings to spur the FAA to action.
The crash is likely to renew debate over safety at Reagan National Airport. Last year, as part of legislation to fund the Federal Aviation Administration, Congress added five additional round-trip flights at National. The decision came over the objections of members of the D.C.-area congressional delegation, who have long argued that the airport is at capacity and that adding more flights could compromise its ability to operate safely.
Resolution criteria: “Tangible” will be up to my own discretion, but for example I would consider a forced reduction in the number of flights as tangible. I will not bet on this market.
Update 2025-02-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification Details:
Administrative reviews and personnel changes (e.g., orders to review policies and fire individuals) do not by themselves count as a tangible policy change.
Only if such reviews result in a substantive change to policy (beyond just a review or personnel adjustment) will it be considered tangible.
The final determination of what constitutes a tangible policy change remains at the creator's discretion.
Update 2025-05-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated they are about to resolve the market. See the linked comment for details on their reasoning and the specific change they consider to meet the criteria for a 'Yes' resolution.
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@traders With the resolution date upcoming, I asked o3 the following:
Has there been a single tangible policy change as a result of the 2025 Potomac airline crash?
—-
Yes — at least one concrete change has already taken effect.
FAA’s permanent helicopter‑flight ban in the Potomac corridor
What changed? On 14 March 2025, the FAA issued an order that permanently closes “Route 4,” the helicopter corridor between Hains Point and the Woodrow Wilson Bridge, and forbids simultaneous use of that corridor while fixed‑wing aircraft are on approach to—or departing from—Reagan National’s runways 15/33 and 4/22.
Why is this tangible?
It is an enforceable air‑traffic‑control rule, published as a long‑term Notice to Air Missions (NOTAM) that operators must follow.
It removed a charted route from the D.C. helicopter‑route structure and required pilots to use alternative, more southerly or land‑overflight paths whenever practicable.
Scope & duration: Unlike the temporary flight restriction (TFR) the FAA imposed on 31 Jan 2025, this ban is explicitly labeled permanent and remains in force independent of the final NTSB report.
Other actions (important but still preliminary)
Status
Action
Who
Notes
In place
Temporary flight restriction on all helicopter ops along the wider Potomac segment (issued 31 Jan 2025).
FAA
Superseded for most traffic by the permanent ban but kept for emergency exceptions.
In place
Added two more operational supervisors in the DCA tower and launched an arrival‑rate review to spread traffic more evenly across the hour.
FAA
Internal staffing/flow‑management directives.
Proposed
NTSB “urgent” recommendation to redesign helicopter routes in the entire National Capital Region.
NTSB → FAA
FAA is evaluating; not final.
Pending
Congressional bills to fund ATC modernization and codify mixed‑traffic rules.
House/Senate committees
Draft language exists, but nothing has become law yet.
Bottom line
The permanent removal of Route 4 for helicopters is the first clear, lasting policy change born directly out of the January 29 2025 Potomac mid‑air collision. Further regulatory or legislative moves are in progress but not yet final.
—-
I checked it out and seems legit. https://www.faa.gov/newsroom/faa-statement-ntsb-recommendations-dca?utm_source=chatgpt.com
I am going to resolve yes unless there are any compelling arguments for no.
@traders With the resolution date upcoming, I asked o3 the following:
Has there been a single tangible policy change as a result of the 2025 Potomac airline crash?
—-
Yes — at least one concrete change has already taken effect.
FAA’s permanent helicopter‑flight ban in the Potomac corridor
What changed? On 14 March 2025, the FAA issued an order that permanently closes “Route 4,” the helicopter corridor between Hains Point and the Woodrow Wilson Bridge, and forbids simultaneous use of that corridor while fixed‑wing aircraft are on approach to—or departing from—Reagan National’s runways 15/33 and 4/22.
Why is this tangible?
It is an enforceable air‑traffic‑control rule, published as a long‑term Notice to Air Missions (NOTAM) that operators must follow.
It removed a charted route from the D.C. helicopter‑route structure and required pilots to use alternative, more southerly or land‑overflight paths whenever practicable.
Scope & duration: Unlike the temporary flight restriction (TFR) the FAA imposed on 31 Jan 2025, this ban is explicitly labeled permanent and remains in force independent of the final NTSB report.
Other actions (important but still preliminary)
Status
Action
Who
Notes
In place
Temporary flight restriction on all helicopter ops along the wider Potomac segment (issued 31 Jan 2025).
FAA
Superseded for most traffic by the permanent ban but kept for emergency exceptions.
In place
Added two more operational supervisors in the DCA tower and launched an arrival‑rate review to spread traffic more evenly across the hour.
FAA
Internal staffing/flow‑management directives.
Proposed
NTSB “urgent” recommendation to redesign helicopter routes in the entire National Capital Region.
NTSB → FAA
FAA is evaluating; not final.
Pending
Congressional bills to fund ATC modernization and codify mixed‑traffic rules.
House/Senate committees
Draft language exists, but nothing has become law yet.
Bottom line
The permanent removal of Route 4 for helicopters is the first clear, lasting policy change born directly out of the January 29 2025 Potomac mid‑air collision. Further regulatory or legislative moves are in progress but not yet final.
—-
I checked it out and seems legit. https://www.faa.gov/newsroom/faa-statement-ntsb-recommendations-dca?utm_source=chatgpt.com
I am going to resolve yes unless there are any compelling arguments for no.
Extending deadline as the question never specifics by when, and the investigation is ongoing @traders
@PaperBoy You might need to keep extending it a few more times; NTSB investigations can take years. On the other hand, the FAA sometimes implements changes before they're done.
Does this count:
"Consistent with the Presidential Memorandum of January 21, 2025 (Keeping Americans Safe in Aviation), I am further ordering the Secretary of Transportation (Secretary) and the Administrator of the Federal Aviation Administration (Administrator) to review all hiring decisions and changes to safety protocols made during the prior 4 years, and to take such corrective action as necessary to achieve uncompromised aviation safety, including the replacement of any individuals who do not meet qualification standards."
https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/immediate-assessment-of-aviation-safety/
@KaylaG hmm I would say no, as he is basically just asking them to review policies and fire people. If in reviewing the policies, they make a substantive change, then it would count.