The Atlanta fed is currently forecasting a -2.8% GDP quarterly growth for Q1 2025.

This resolves YES if the Q1 GDP for the United States is broadly in-line with this estimate, which I shall define as -2% or less!

This resolves to the THIRD ESTIMATE, scheduled to be published on June 26th, by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule

HOWEVER, if there is good reason to believe that these numbers are wrong (due to political pressure or other factors), based on a consensus of reporting, I will resolve to the best independent estimate of US Q1 GDP available at that date. Indeed, based on reporting on comments by the US Treasury Secretary, this seems like a distinct possibility that there will be methodological change in GDP determination, which might cause this to be necessary.

Due to the potentially subjective nature of this resolution, I will not bet on this market.

• Update 2025-03-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Alternative Calculation Adjustment:

  • Government Spending Inclusion: If the official calculation changes to exclude government spending, the alternative estimate used will be one that continues to include government spending.

  • Consistency of Comparison: This approach is necessary to ensure that GDP figures remain comparable to past measurements.