Will Jordan Chiles's bronze medal be reinstated?
Will Jordan Chiles's bronze medal be reinstated?
74
1kṀ52k9 hours ago
4%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Jordan Chiles's bronze medal in the floor finals was taken away by the CAS and IOC, due to a controversy:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/11/world/olympics/jordan-chiles-gymnastics-medal.html
This resolves YES if Chiles and the Americans' appeal is granted and she is allowed to keep the bronze medal / her bronze medal is reinstated. If both Chiles and Barbosu (or Chiles and Barbosu and Voinea, for that matter) receive bronze medals, this will still resolve YES.
This resolves NO if not.
Physical possession of the bronze medal is irrelevant to this market. I may extend the close time if arbitration continues past close date. I will not bet in this market, except maybe one mana to boost trader count :-P
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.