Will India and Pakistan go to war in 2025? (>1k deaths) | Manifold

Will India and Pakistan go to war in 2025? (>1k deaths)

46

100Ṁ1929

Dec 31

21%

chance

11

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves YES if the following criterion is met:

> 1000 deaths due to an India-Pakistan conflict within 2025, as per consensus media reporting and a median of the estimates of Wikipedia, the NYT, and the Guardian

I will not bet in this market, to remain as objective as possible.

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Does it need to be officially declared as a war? Pakistan is already saying that the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty is an act of war. If deaths result, would these count? Do the deaths need to be of soldiers or do civilians count too?

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