Will India and Pakistan go to war in 2025? (>1k deaths)

58

100Ṁ4237

resolved Jan 2

Resolved

NO

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves YES if the following criterion is met:

> 1000 deaths due to an India-Pakistan conflict within 2025, as per consensus media reporting and a median of the estimates of Wikipedia, the NYT, and the Guardian

I will not bet in this market, to remain as objective as possible.

Market context

Get

1,000

to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1		Ṁ227
2		Ṁ49
3		Ṁ42
4		Ṁ40
5		Ṁ30

Sort by:

arbitrage : https://manifold.markets/Panfilo/which-of-these-military-conflicts-w-qZOApZpQCU

bought Ṁ20 YES

Wikipedia is likely to pass this milestone. I can't speak to whether the others will report a grand total at the end of the year though.

Does it need to be officially declared as a war? Pakistan is already saying that the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty is an act of war. If deaths result, would these count? Do the deaths need to be of soldiers or do civilians count too?

People are also trading

Will Thailand and Cambodia enter into a hot war in 2025?

Will India and Bangladesh go to war by EOY 2026?

Will Pakistan have a major civil war by the end of 2035?

Will Pakistan engage in military conflict with another nation before the end of 2035?

Will there be a war between Iran and Pakistan before 2030?

Will India settle their Kashmir conflict with Pakistan before January 1st 2035?

Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2035?

Related questions

Will Thailand and Cambodia enter into a hot war in 2025?

Will India and Bangladesh go to war by EOY 2026?

Will Pakistan have a major civil war by the end of 2035?

Will Pakistan engage in military conflict with another nation before the end of 2035?

Will there be a war between Iran and Pakistan before 2030?

Will India settle their Kashmir conflict with Pakistan before January 1st 2035?

Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2035?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy