https://manifold.markets/BrianCaulfield/will-costco-announce-that-its-raisi

Will Costco announce that it's raising the price of a Costco membership by the end of 2023?

35% chance. Will resolve 'yes' if Costco announces they are raising the price of either their Gold Star membership, currently $60, Executive membership, currently $120, or Business membership, currently $60. Will resolve at year-end or upon announcement of a price hike, not upon the price raise going into effect. For example, if Costco announces they're raising the price in November but the price hike goes into effect in January, the question would resolve as "yes." The news must come from either Costco, via an official source, such as their online newsroom, https://investor.costco.com/news/default.aspx, or a reputable news outlet relaying the news from Costco. Stories speculating on a price hike do not count. Will resolve to 'no' if no price hike to any of Costco's three membership plans is announced by year-end.

Costco seems pretty committed to $1.50.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/food/2022/09/26/costco-hot-dog-soda-combo-price/8118306001/

Don't worry, Costco commits to $1.50 hot dog and soda combo price — maybe 'forever'

Even though price hikes are a part of business with inflation, a Costco executive said the $1.50 hot dog and soda combo deal will stay the same.

This is a great question, thanks for creating this!

N o

the price is sticky and a marquee deal. the soda costs nothing and hotdogs cost pennies. $1.50 is still way way more expensive than buying hotdogs in bulk, so nobody's gonna be pulling up and carting off hotdogs 100 at a time even if the cost of meat doubles. They've raised the price on Chicken Bakes, and I expect them to raise the price on pizza ($2/slice $10/pie is a screaming deal now) but I expect the hotdog to stick.

@Adam the catch is labor (wages, which are fairly high at costco) and prep costs such as condiments, fuel, napkins, etc. they also have these at an efficient rate, but I certainly don't expect them to get lower. buying a pack of hot dogs out of the fridge puts those costs on the consumer. still, Costco has quite a few loss leaders ($5 whole chicken f. ex.) so it's a tough question to call.