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Just to be clear, I think this should resolve No if Ucrainian forces will leave the occupied land willingly, following a peace treat, right?

(Edit: i meant no 😅)

I would think that's a NO, since they'd relinquished it. Good question to clarify early! @benjaminIkuta ?

Right, I meant No, I edited my comment 😅

Right

To address a potential edge case, this still resolves YES if Ukraine gets pushed back to the border but then regains some ground before the end of the year.

Assuming this excludes the portions of the formally annexed oblasts that Ukraine still controls?

?

Russia has de jure annexed Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. It doesn’t yet have de facto control over those oblasts. So on one view, Ukraine occupies Russian territory.

Ah, I see what you mean. No, this is referring to Kursk.