Background

Sławomir Mentzen is a Polish politician, economist, and leader of the right-wing Confederation (Konfederacja) party. The Polish presidential election in 2025 will follow a two-round system if no candidate receives more than 50% of votes in the first round.

As of early March 2025, Mentzen has been polling at approximately 19% support, placing him in a competitive position. He has gained significant momentum in recent months, particularly among younger voters and those attracted to his economic policies and anti-Ukrainian rhetoric. Recent polls have shown him surpassing some traditional party candidates, indicating growing support.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to YES if Sławomir Mentzen receives more than 20% of the valid votes cast in the first round of the 2025 Polish presidential election, according to the official results published by the National Electoral Commission of Poland (Państwowa Komisja Wyborcza).

The market will resolve to NO if:

• Mentzen receives exactly 20% or less of the valid votes

• Mentzen withdraws from the race before the election

• Mentzen is disqualified or otherwise does not appear on the ballot

Considerations

Polish presidential elections can be volatile, with significant shifts in voter preferences occurring in the final weeks of campaigning. External factors such as international events, debates, scandals, or strategic voting could substantially impact the final results. Additionally, polling in Poland has historically shown discrepancies with actual election outcomes.