It seems clear that SCOTUS unanimously believes that only the federal government has the authority to disqualify a candidate for federal office. I think this question has been answered. Resolving NO.

The SCOTUS ruling today. https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/23pdf/23-719_19m2.pdf

@becauseyoudo 😞

@Snarflak The opinions all seem to agree that states don't have the authority to enforce qualification restrictions for federal elections. I'll have more time to read through it tonight. I'm leaning towards closing this market but I'll leave it open for now.

Trump's legal team published their reply brief yesterday and they've clearly laid out their legal strategy. https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/23/23-719/299759/20240205133618970_23-719%20Trump%20v%20Anderson%20Petitioner%20Reply%20Brief%20on%20the%20Merits.pdf

Market is currently strongly underestimating the originalist commitments of SCOTUS and the strength of the originalist case.

@GradySimon

Why has this been pushed down since early January?

@makeworld It's a very emotionally charged question.

You might want to look at other markets on related events. @PatrickDelaney has some good analysis and notes on the upcoming SCOTUS case.

The Maine decision was put on hold pending the SCOTUS Colorado 14A decision. Trump will appear on Maine's Republican primary ballot as a qualified candidate unless SCOTUS rules that he is ineligible before March 5th.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-maine-superior-court-primary-ballot-eligibility-supreme-court/

I'm confused about the resolution criteria.

"The candidate's name must not be present on the ballot on election day."

seems to conflict with

"Colorado and Maine both have their presidential primary scheduled for Super Tuesday, March 5th. If Trump is disqualified from either ballot at 12am on March 5th, I will close the market to new trades at that time and will resolve the market as soon as the polls close that night."

If Trump were disqualified on March 4th his name would 100% be on the ballot on election day, because ballots are printed ahead of time.

Does "not be present on the ballot" mean "votes for the candidate won't be counted" or does it mean literally "their name is not printed on the ballot"?

@Vocateur You're right there is a conflict there that I missed. I'm not interested in semantic arguments so I'll be changing the resolution to read "The candidate must be disqualified on election day." Thanks for pointing that out.

@becauseyoudo Thanks so much! Agreed that that's the more meaningful question, people aren't nearly as interested in ballot-printing minutia!

"...the court put its ruling on hold until Jan. 4, 2024 – the deadline for the secretary of state to certify the ballot – to give the U.S. Supreme Court time to weigh in. And it noted that as long as either Trump or the Colorado Republican Party, which like Trump had joined the lawsuit to defend his right to appear on the ballot, sought review in the Supreme Court by the Jan. 4 deadline, the secretary “will continue to be required to include President Trump’s name on the 2024 presidential primary ballot, until the receipt of any order or mandate from the Supreme Court.”"

https://www.scotusblog.com/2024/01/trump-asks-supreme-court-to-keep-him-on-2024-colorado-ballot/

Trump is still on the ballot in Colorado until SCOTUS has a chance to review the case.

Here's the Colorado Secretary of State explaining the rules for "disqualified" candidates in the state who's names might still appear on the ballot.

https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2024/01/04/jena-griswold-colorado-secretary-of-state-trump-supreme-court-ruling-appeal-sot-nn-vpx.cnn

we got Maine too now

@Marnix applies only to the primary election, but yes

@Marnix Maine's presidential primary is also on March 5th.

Added this question to a 'Trump on the Colorado ballot' dashboard

An N/A resolution is no longer possible so I've removed it from the resolution criteria.

Just to clarify:

Anticipating Trump’s appeal, the Colorado justices paused their ruling until January 4. Once Trump inevitably asks the justices to review the ruling, the Colorado court’s pause will be extended until the nation’s highest court announces whether it will take the case – and, if it does, until it hands down its final decision. That means the US Supreme Court could be determining what happens more for the general election, not the primary ballot.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/20/politics/trump-supreme-court-2024-election/index.html

EDIT: It looks like Colorado will still be allowing Trump's name to be on the primary ballot because they have stuck with the interpretation that the Republican nomination is not an "office" as defined in the constitution. The market doesn't look like it will have a resolution until Nov 5th 2024.

@becauseyoudo What are you talking about?

@becauseyoudo Where does it say that at?

I’ve been trying to look for an article, but I can't find one that says he was put back on

@BTE There was one NBC news story that suggested that he wasn't being barred from the primary.

Here's the Colorado Supreme Court Filing: https://www.courts.state.co.us/userfiles/file/Court_Probation/Supreme_Court/Opinions/2023/23SA300.pdf

I'll read through it and make any adjustments in the next few days.

Either way, I'm going to follow the guidance I've already set. If his name isn't on the ballot for the primary on March 5th, this market will resolve YES.

@becauseyoudo from page 132: "The district court erred by concluding that Section Three does not apply to the President. We therefore reverse the district court’s judgment. As stated above, however, we affirm much of the district court’s reasoning on other issues. Accordingly, we conclude that because President Trump is disqualified from holding the office of President under Section Three, it would be a wrongful act under the Election Code for the Secretary to list President Trump as a candidate on the presidential primary ballot. Therefore, the Secretary may not list President Trump’s name on the 2024 presidential primary ballot, nor may she count any write-in votes cast for him."

@becauseyoudo So guess he’s still not gonna be on the ballot?

Wish that wasn't true, messed up if you ask me.

But then again, I do like my mana