Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if any of the following events occur between September 20, 2026, and October 1, 2026 (00:00 UTC), as verified by reports from major international news outlets (such as Reuters, Associated Press, or BBC):

1. New Sovereign Combatant: A nation not currently engaged in direct state-on-state military strikes in the conflict (such as Pakistan, Turkey, or Saudi Arabia) officially declares war, activates a mutual defense pact (such as the Mecca joint defense agreement), or launches direct, attributed military strikes against another state (such as Iran).

2. Weapons of Mass Destruction: The confirmed use of nuclear, biological, or chemical weapons by any state or non-state actor in the Middle East.

3. New Ground Invasion: A ground invasion launched by Israel, the United States, or Iran into a sovereign country where they do not currently have ground forces actively fighting (e.g., an Israeli ground invasion of Syria, or a U.S. ground invasion of Iran).

4. Consensus Escalation: A consensus of reputable global news sources explicitly characterizing a new, unprecedented military event in the region during this timeframe as a "major escalation" or "significant widening of the war."
   
   

If none of these conditions are met by October 1, 2026, the market will resolve to NO. In cases of ambiguity, the market creator will resolve the market using their best judgment, guided by mainstream international reporting.