Resolves in 2050, based on whether:

1. The American obesity epidemic gets better by 2050

2. This is attributable partly to changes made by or during the Trump & RFK Jr. era

Resolves NO if:

1. It's entirely due to changes unrelated to Trump & RFK Jr's leadership (e.g. it comes from Ozempic / semaglutide)

2. It's due to changes against the actual actions and directives of Trump & RFK Jr.

3. Obesity epidemic does not get better (smaller % obese)

4. If on average, the accepted impact of their actions overall have made it worse, despite it getting better for some other reason (e.g. Ozempic)

In case of conflict between the two, it will lean towards RFK Jr.'s impact, unless one's actions were overwhelmingly more consequential.

• Update 2025-02-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Ambiguous Outcome Resolution:

  • If the available evidence does not lead to a clear determination regarding the influence of Trump & RFK Jr.'s actions, the market will be resolved as N/A.

• Update 2025-04-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Causal Attribution for Economic Factors:

  • The market will resolve YES if the observed improvement in the obesity epidemic is caused by the actions of Trump & RFK Jr., even in cases where economic factors (such as a depression) are the immediate mechanism.

  • This clarification reinforces that the decisive criterion is whether their actions are the direct cause of the improvement.

• Update 2025-04-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Early Term Assessment:

  • The market will resolve to NO if obesity levels clearly do not decrease by the end of Trump's term.

  • If obesity levels improve by that time, further evaluation will be needed to determine whether such improvement is directly attributable to the actions of Trump & RFK Jr.