Resolves in 2050, based on whether:
The American obesity epidemic gets better by 2050
This is attributable partly to changes made by or during the Trump & RFK Jr. era
Resolves NO if:
It's entirely due to changes unrelated to Trump & RFK Jr's leadership (e.g. it comes from Ozempic / semaglutide)
It's due to changes against the actual actions and directives of Trump & RFK Jr.
Obesity epidemic does not get better (smaller % obese)
If on average, the accepted impact of their actions overall have made it worse, despite it getting better for some other reason (e.g. Ozempic)
In case of conflict between the two, it will lean towards RFK Jr.'s impact, unless one's actions were overwhelmingly more consequential.
Update 2025-02-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Ambiguous Outcome Resolution:
If the available evidence does not lead to a clear determination regarding the influence of Trump & RFK Jr.'s actions, the market will be resolved as N/A.
1,000@WilliamGunn Feel free to suggest some, that is not the point of the bet.
I don't know yet who or what org to delegate this to, as they will also face the same problem of being pro or anti-RFK partisan, and making the bet about that.
In my view, there will be "neutral" AI oracles by 2050. So maybe whatever the most advanced and objective model would decide. I think there is a bit of time to figure that out, but suggestions are welcome.
@barbarous Normally what you expect is for the scientific community to study interventions and their effects. Something tells me that isn't going to happen here, and if not, we won't have an answer. Your AGI God will not save you.