According to a new preprint: "A substantial discordance exists between the typical 8-week duration of clinical trials and the median 5-year real-world use of antidepressants"

Background

A recent preprint published on medRxiv highlights a significant discrepancy between how antidepressants are tested and how they're actually used:

• Clinical trials for antidepressants typically last around 8 weeks (median duration)

• In real-world practice, patients take these medications for a median of 5 years (approximately 260 weeks)

• 88.5% of clinical trials last 12 weeks or less, with none extending beyond 52 weeks

The study also found that few clinical trials monitor for withdrawal symptoms (3.8%), include tapering protocols (18.9%), or report post-treatment outcomes (1.9%).

This raises the question of whether antidepressants are safe to use for the length they are prescribed and used.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve NO if by 2040 either:

• there is significant scientific evidence (as judged by me or AI) that long-term use of anti-depressants (1-5 years) is unsafe, such that the median length of use appears detrimental

• US national health organizations impose restrictions or publish recommendations against using or prescribing anti-depressants for lengths of 1-5 years

Resolves YES otherwise.

• Update 2025-03-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Overprescription Threshold Clarification:

  • The market will resolve NO if evidence shows that 50% or more of individuals currently taking antidepressants are, in effect, overprescribed (i.e., should not be taking them).

  • This threshold is intended to capture a risk–benefit analysis where the actual benefit may not justify the level of prescription.

Note: This additional criterion complements the existing resolution criteria by providing a quantitative threshold for assessing safety based on overprescription.