Randomized placebo-controlled studies of antidepressants are under 52 weeks, yet the median use of antidepressants is 5 years.
This market predicts whether the next eligible trial of antidepressants shows that they are safe and effective over 52 weeks duration
Definitions:
eligible trial - placebo-controlled randomized controlled trial over 52 weeks that measures both efficacy and safety
effective - beats placebo control
safe - risks and side effects are not found to be worse than currently known
Resolves YES if next published (after March 7th, 2025) eligible trial shows they're both safe and effective statistically speaking
Resolves NO otherwise
(Caveat: if the next study only measures safety or efficacy, the market won't resolve, but may resolve on the combination of 2 studies once there is another one that evaluates the other measure.)
1,000@barbarous OK, so the next >52 week RCT that does examine both safety and efficacy will be what resolves this?
@WilliamGunn Yes. Alternatively, 2 of the next studies that in sum do both
(For example, next 52+ week RCT only looks at efficacy, may resolve once there is another one that just looks at safety)