By how much will the Fed cut interest rates in 2024?

Plus

Ṁ80k

Jan 1

0.1%

negative (Fed raises rates)

0.1%

0.25%

0.1%

0.50%

0.2%

0.75%

99%

1.25%

1.5%

0.3%

1.75% or more

Resolves to the difference between 5.50% (the end-of-2023 value) and the upper limit of the Fed's federal funds rate target range shown on FRED

From https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-2024-predictions

Fed cuts interest rates at least fifty basis points (90%)
Fed cuts interest rates at least 75 basis points (70%)
Fed does not cut interest rates by more than 100 basis points (70%)

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#2024 Matt Yglesias Predictions

#Inflation

#Interest Rates

#Federal reserve

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@mods resolves to 1%

@polymathematic I feel like it should wait until the end of the year -- the market has not reached the closing date.

bought Ṁ50 NO

Powell says the Fed doesn’t need to be ‘in a hurry’ to reduce interest rates

Published Thu, Nov 14 20243:00 PM EST

CNBC

Arb https://manifold.markets/Shump/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-f?r=TG9nYW5Pd2Vucw

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