Why did the Democrats lose the 2024 election?
232
6.6kṀ110k
resolved Dec 9
Resolved
YES
Not enough perceived distinction between Biden and Harris
Resolved
YES
They took the blame for inflation
Resolved
YES
The median voter at least felt worse off economically under Biden.
Resolved
N/A
Their policies led to inflation and they denied the economy was bad
Resolved
67%
Lack of a compelling narrative to motivate and engage people
Resolved
67%
Joe Biden was both a weak candidate and dropped out too late.
Resolved
66%
Incumbents unpopular worldwide
Resolved
N/A
Because they lost the Electoral College
Resolved
N/A
Democrats will never understand why
Resolved
N/A
Harris' position on Gaza / Israel
Resolved
N/A
Sending Israel Weapons despite the alleged Genocide and Human Rights abuses in Gaza made Democrats unpopular to parts of the left
Resolved
N/A
Trump, Vance and Musk went on Rogan very shortly before the election
Resolved
N/A
America is “not ready for a woman president”
Resolved
N/A
@bagelfan fewer!!!
Resolved
N/A
Reasons that no one knows yet
Resolved
N/A
Harris nominated Tim Walz instead of Josh Shapiro
Resolved
NO
Harris’ gender
Resolved
NO
Failure to embrace economic populism
Resolved
NO
Elon Musk supported Trump
Resolved
NO
Because they got fewer votes

The Republican Party swept the 2024 election, winning the presidency, all swing states, the national popular vote, the Senate, and (likely) the House.

What caused this (in particular, what caused the POTUS result)?

This market starts with 10 placeholders. Comment a reason and I'll edit it in (limit one per user). After all placeholders are taken up, I'll open it up so anyone can add answers. This market will remain open until the end of the month. After that, there will be a voting process to determine the top options.

For the vote, I will write a comment for each option, and the top 5 in terms of likes (Edit: likes minus dislikes) will resolve YES, all other options will resolve NO. If there's a tie, the tied options will resolve to %.

The vote will run for about a week and it will close at a random time. I won't bet on this market.

Reasons must refer to one specific thing, e.g. "High inflation and lack of competitive primary" is not allowed. I may N/A options that do not adhere to this rule or are too similar to another option.

Users are encouraged to persuade others in the comments section.

This is my first time running a market like this, suggestions welcome!

Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): In case of a tie for the last spots in the top 5 most-liked options (measured by likes minus dislikes), all tied options will resolve to YES.

Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): In case of a three-way tie for most likes (measured by likes minus dislikes), the option picked by FairlyRandom will resolve to 66% while the other two options will resolve to 67%.

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