The Republican Party swept the 2024 election, winning the presidency, all swing states, the national popular vote, the Senate, and (likely) the House.
What caused this (in particular, what caused the POTUS result)?
This market starts with 10 placeholders. Comment a reason and I'll edit it in (limit one per user). After all placeholders are taken up, I'll open it up so anyone can add answers. This market will remain open until the end of the month. After that, there will be a voting process to determine the top options.
For the vote, I will write a comment for each option, and the top 5 in terms of likes (Edit: likes minus dislikes) will resolve YES, all other options will resolve NO. If there's a tie, the tied options will resolve to %.
The vote will run for about a week and it will close at a random time. I won't bet on this market.
Reasons must refer to one specific thing, e.g. "High inflation and lack of competitive primary" is not allowed. I may N/A options that do not adhere to this rule or are too similar to another option.
Users are encouraged to persuade others in the comments section.
This is my first time running a market like this, suggestions welcome!
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): In case of a tie for the last spots in the top 5 most-liked options (measured by likes minus dislikes), all tied options will resolve to YES.
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): In case of a three-way tie for most likes (measured by likes minus dislikes), the option picked by FairlyRandom will resolve to 66% while the other two options will resolve to 67%.
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
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1 | Ṁ2,805 | |
2 | Ṁ849 | |
3 | Ṁ806 | |
4 | Ṁ804 | |
5 | Ṁ790 |