The Republican Party swept the 2024 election, winning the presidency, all swing states, the national popular vote, the Senate, and (likely) the House.
What caused this (in particular, what caused the POTUS result)?
This market starts with 10 placeholders. Comment a reason and I'll edit it in (limit one per user). After all placeholders are taken up, I'll open it up so anyone can add answers. This market will remain open until the end of the month. After that, there will be a voting process to determine the top options.
For the vote, I will write a comment for each option, and the top 5 in terms of likes will resolve YES, all other options will resolve NO. If there's a tie, the tied options will resolve to %.
The vote will run for about a week and it will close at a random time. I won't bet on this market.
Reasons must refer to one specific thing, e.g. "High inflation and lack of competitive primary" is not allowed. I may N/A options that do not adhere to this rule or are too similar to another option.
Users are encouraged to persuade others in the comments section.
This is my first time running a market like this, suggestions welcome!
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3.00@traders The vote was initially going to be top 5 in terms of likes on comments I will write corresponding to each option, but now I'm thinking since there is a new dislike button, maybe it should be ranked by likes minus dislikes.
Please comment your opinion. I will only make the change if a large majority are in support.
FAQ: Why is "Because they got fewer votes" an option?
I accepted this suggestion mainly because it was funny. Now I see that it was maybe not the best idea, but nothing to do about it now.
All placeholders have been taken up. I've toggled so that anyone can add options now. Keep in mind that duplicate options or too general options will be N/A'd.
If you do not want to pay the 100M for adding an option, you can still comment a suggestion, but there is no guarantee that it will be selected.
@TheUserU2 Regen worse. Supposedly the majority of purple believe their own situation is improved but the reconning is bad: https://www.axios.com/2023/08/18/americans-economy-bad-personal-finances-good
Vibes with the explanation that higher prices are attributed to inflation and raises were earned by merit.
@bagelfan I know this is a joke answer, but... Democrats got more votes in 2016 and in 2000, so this trivially isn't why they lost.
@traders The vote was initially going to be top 5 in terms of likes on comments I will write corresponding to each option, but now I'm thinking since there is a new dislike button, maybe it should be ranked by likes minus dislikes.
Please comment your opinion. I will only make the change if a large majority are in support.
@bagelfan I originally wrote this because it is the only thing anyone really knows, everything else is untestable speculation. I did have a serious point.
@bagelfan Voting this down because it's trivially true and not in the spirit of the question
@TANSTAAFL Trading isn't voting. The vote to determine which reasons resolve YES will be held at the end of the month.
@zsig Yes, true, that is not the word I should have used. I hope this is voted down because it adds no value to the discussion.
@Enlil inflation is definitely a large part of it, but it's debatable how much is inflation specifically vs. a more negative media environment for incumbents. eg. would incumbents have been punished as much 30 years ago for the same economic environment? Unclear. I think "incumbents unpopular globally" does capture something more than just inflation.
@MichaelSadowsky I definitely agree that the very negative media environment is a factor. I'm not sure though that it's much worse than 2016 or 2020. IMO inflation opened the door for the negativity floodgates. Very reasonable argument though
paul graham says: "Their biggest mistake was antagonizing the entire crypto community"
https://x.com/paulg/status/1854220074418086237?t=v-XS0cbgLg0b5QlziodBmg&s=19
@thepurplebull this is too similar to "Harris's gender" and will prob get N/A'd. Can you edit it now? I guess someone already bet NO.
@0xSMW I think that denying the economy was bad was a factor. It doesn't matter what the economy actually is, only what people thought it was.
@Dand3f4 I've been thinking for months what the right thing to do about this would have been. The economy is amazing, especially compared to other countries. Yet if you say that people hate you. They proposed to solve a made up issue by fighting so called "price gouging" which then alienated people like me and opened the door to Trump yelling "price controls". Feels very Catch 22