Resolves YES if SBF personally drained FTX's funds or knowingly and willfully collaborated with someone who did. Resolves NO if he was uninvolved, fell prey to social engineering, left the private keys out on the coffee table when someone came over, etc.

The hack in question refers to the November 11th transfer out of $600 million in funds.

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:
predicts NO

@AryehZax Will this resolve NO if there's no clear evidence one way or another?

@JonasVollmer Great question!

predicts NO

@AryehZax … and what's your answer? :)

@JonasVollmer I haven't been following the story much in the last year. Is there any credible reporting on the identity of the hacker (possibly agnostic as to SBF's involvement)? I'd feel okay resolving to NO or to some single-digit probability in that case. If it's totally unknown I'm not sure how to move forward.

@AryehZax I have not seen anything definitive, though I also haven't been following it closely. Personally I'd just leave the market open until we have a clearer answer.

predicts NO

I think it should resolve NO, because we're probably never going to learn who it is. Or N/A.

@jacksonpolack I don't see how it makes sense to say "we don't know the answer, therefore we should assume [specific answer]".

predicts YES

2024: US invades Bahamas to recapture crypto fugitive and stolen private keys

Was SBF behind the FTX hack?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition