Will I get a girlfriend before I graduate high school?
Will I get a girlfriend before I graduate high school?
16
250Ṁ825resolved Feb 26
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Inspired by the endorsement of relationship markets by Manifold staff today.
Inga: "You will all get girlfriends!"
Resolves YES iff me and one person who identifies at least partially as feminine consider each other to be in a mutual relationship together after now but before I graduate high school. Note that this means that previous relationships before this market don't count towards this.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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