Resolution criteria
This market resolves YES if Brent Crude Oil closes at or above $110 per barrel on May 15th, 2026. Resolution will be determined using the official closing price from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) at https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/prices.php or equivalent authoritative source (e.g CNBC, Bloomberg). If the market does not trade on May 15th, 2026, the most recent trading day's close will be used.
Background
Brent Crude is the leading global price benchmark for Atlantic basin crude oils. Its price is influenced by a complex interplay of global supply and demand factors, geopolitical stability in oil-producing regions, OPEC+ production quotas, and broader macroeconomic conditions. Traders monitor these factors closely to predict volatility and price shifts in the energy markets.
This description was generated by AI.
Ā” I'm leaving the probability/chance at 50% since you never know what might happen š¤·āāļø
1,000š Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | į¹1,052 | |
| 2 | į¹189 | |
| 3 | į¹110 | |
| 4 | į¹87 | |
| 5 | į¹54 |
People are also trading
@ChadCotty what's your reasoning for buying up Yes shares at 54%?
At the current pace it doesn't seem that it'll reach 110 above 50% odds (even considering slight asymmetric risk).
Closing spot prices seem to average ~3.5 lower than EIA reporting, meaning that it's at ~108 right now.
@Capital This market resolves based on the Brent closing spot price for May 15th according to EIA. They will post the price for May 15th on Monday morning. You might be looking at the front-month futures price.