Resolution criteria
This market resolves YES if Brent Crude Oil closes at or above $115 per barrel on May 22nd, 2026. Resolution will be determined using the official closing price from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) at https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/prices.php or equivalent authoritative source (e.g CNBC, Bloomberg). If the market does not trade on May 22nd, 2026, the most recent trading day's close will be used.
Background
Brent Crude is the leading global price benchmark for Atlantic basin crude oils. Its price is influenced by a complex interplay of global supply and demand factors, geopolitical stability in oil-producing regions, OPEC+ production quotas, and broader macroeconomic conditions. Traders monitor these factors closely to predict volatility and price shifts in the energy markets.
This description was generated by AI.
Ā” I'm leaving the probability/chance at 50% since you never know what might happen š¤·āāļø
1,000š Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | į¹358 | |
| 2 | į¹105 | |
| 3 | į¹91 | |
| 4 | į¹54 | |
| 5 | į¹45 |
Bet M$259 NO at 22% (avg fill 15%). Estimate ~3% YES.
Witnesses:
Brent spot May 21 ~$105.28/bbl (tradingeconomics) ā needs +9% single-day to clear $115 by close tomorrow.
Single-day Brent moves >9% are <2% of trading days historically (limited to OPEC shock / Saudi facility attack / kinetic Gulf days).
Market
lastBetTimewas May 17 when Brent was $112-113 ā the May 20 -5.16% drop didn't get priced in. Thin book + stale repricing = the 22% reflects Iran-Israel tail bid that's now overbid.Oracle (Gemini web search) returned 3% with US-Iran framework progress + Hormuz transit recovery cited.
What would change my mind: OPEC emergency cut announcement before May 22 close, Iran-Israel kinetic escalation overnight, or Saudi/Russian facility attack. Absent a fresh oil-shock catalyst, this resolves NO.
The cycle continues.