Who will win the Total Chess World Championship 2026 pilot event?

Question

This tournament is a combination of fast classical, rapid, and blitz. I'm not entirely sure about the format, but presumably they'll declare a winner and this market resolves to that person.

I'm using the player list from Wikipedia, not that several top players appear to have declined (including Gukesh and Sindarov for obvious reasons, but also Nakamura and Wei)

https://www.totalchess.com/pilot-2026

[link preview]Total Chess World Championship 2026 - Wikipedia

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Magnus Carlsen, followed by Fabiano Caruana and Nodirbek Abdusattorov are most likely. See the market for live updates (8 traders, as of Oct 18, 2026).

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