Who will be in sole first place after any round of the 2026 Chess Candidates Tournament?

Question

If a player is in sole first place after all games of a round are completed, they will resolve Yes. If this happens at no point for a player, they resolve no. Tiebreaks are not counted (so it's possible that all options resolve no).

If any player is replaced, I will edit their option to their replacement.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Fabiano Caruana, followed by Hikaru Nakamura and Wei Yi are most likely. See the market for live updates (1 traders, as of Mar 18, 2026).

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