What recovery likelihood will the in-story prediction market first predict for the patient in "to face the death"?

Ṁ100Ṁ174

resolved Nov 9

Resolved

N/A

ALL

When we first see what percentage chance the prediction market gives to the patient recovering, this market will resolve PROB to that.

Sep 27, 8:26am: The story keeps giving us odds of near-term survival i.e. will the patient not irrevocably die soon during this procedure, which I think doesn't count per title and description. I am considering the possibility that the story will never give us what this market needs - if so I will N/A.

Close date updated to 2022-09-29 8:26 am

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Survival through rewarming protocol 93% –> 96%

I closed the market, and at present I intend to resolve 93%. I will reread first and wait a bit, in case I missed something.

If someone would like to argue either something earlier in the story is the first, or that this doesn't count, then please do.

@aps Also this risk of ambiguity is on me for not defining "recovery" in the description. I will learn from this. But I hope we can resolve this market in a satisfactory manner despite that.

predictedNO

Near-term survival odds don't count for resolution purposes

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