Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Kim Jong Un is formally impeached before March 1, 2026. Impeachment in North Korea would require action by the Supreme People's Assembly, as it is the highest state organ with constitutional authority to remove the supreme leader. Resolution will be based on official announcements from North Korean state media (KCNA) or credible international news sources confirming an impeachment proceeding and vote.

Background

There is no legal document that prescribes a special place for Kim Jong Un in the government system. In practice, the Supreme People's Assembly is a rubber stamp for decisions already made by the Workers Party of Korea and its supreme leader, doing little more than giving legal sanction to decisions already made by the supreme leader and top leadership. Periodic purges of leadership are not out of the norm for North Korean leaders, with some being brutal, such as the executions of Kim Jong-un's uncle Jang Song-thaek in 2013 and Minister of Defense Hyon Yong-chol in 2015.

Considerations

North Korea's totalitarian system operates fundamentally differently from democracies with impeachment mechanisms. All constitutional processes in North Korea are, by design, endorsed without opposition and manipulated by the country's top leadership. Leadership changes in North Korea historically occur through succession or purges rather than formal constitutional procedures. The timeframe of less than one month makes this outcome extremely unlikely given the regime's stability mechanisms and Kim Jong Un's consolidated control.

This description was generated by AI.