Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if Hezbollah is officially and verifiably disarmed of its significant military capabilities, including its heavy weapons arsenal and rocket systems, by 11:59 PM UTC on May 31, 2026.

Resolution will be based on consensus reporting from major international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC) and official statements from the Lebanese government, the United Nations, or recognized international monitoring bodies confirming that the disarmament has occurred. If no such verification exists by the deadline, or if the organization retains its significant military capabilities, the market resolves to NO.

Background

Hezbollah, a Lebanon-based political and militant organization backed by Iran, maintains a vast arsenal of rockets, missiles, and other military equipment that operates largely independently of the Lebanese Armed Forces. The question of its disarmament has been a subject of long-standing international tension and domestic debate in Lebanon for decades, often tied to UN Security Council resolutions, most notably Resolution 1701, which calls for the disarmament of all armed groups in Lebanon. Achieving full disarmament would represent a historic shift in the regional security landscape and Lebanese domestic governance.

This description was generated by AI.