Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if the United States military conducts at least one kinetic strike (including airstrikes, drone strikes, missile strikes, or naval/artillery bombardment) within the internationally recognized territorial borders of Iran (including its mainland and sovereign islands) at any point from August 1, 2026, to August 31, 2026, inclusive.

Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.

Key Details:

• Target Location: Strikes must hit targets physically located within Iran's sovereign territory. Cyberattacks, kinetic strikes against Iranian-aligned proxy forces outside of Iran (e.g., in Iraq, Syria, or Yemen), or maritime blockades/ship disabling in international waters do not count unless accompanied by kinetic strikes on Iranian territory.

• Sourcing: Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the U.S. Department of Defense or U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), or consensus reporting from major independent news agencies such as Reuters or the Associated Press.

Background

Following the outbreak of conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran on February 28, 2026, and the temporary collapse of a subsequent ceasefire, full-scale hostilities resumed in July 2026. The U.S. military has conducted multiple waves of airstrikes targeting Iranian air defenses, ports, and command centers, with some strikes reaching as far north as Tehran. This market tracks whether the U.S. military will continue or resume kinetic bombardments inside Iran during the month of August 2026.

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