I may add more grad schools. Resolves yes if accepted, no if waitlisted or rejected.
I will try to answer as many questions as I can without revealing identifying information.
I'm applying for ML PhDs for Fall 2026.
I go to a top 10 CS school for undergrad.
I have a near-perfect-to-perfect GPA.
I have >0 publications in my subfield of ML.
Update 1 (2025/12/23): I have an interview for UT Austin!
Update 2 (2026/01/01): Harvard interview!
Update 3 (2026/01/11): NYU interview!
Update 4 (2026/02/04): Caltech interview!
Related Market: https://manifold.markets/anonanon/where-will-i-go-to-grad-school
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Sorry to hear about Harvard, that's tough. I also got rejected just a few days ago. I'm buying no on Berkeley and MIT. I started from base rate of 5% for ML PhD, adjusted upwards for credentials, downwards for no interview and rejection from other top schools. Wouldn't put either above 20%, but I hope you get in.
@MarcoBazzaniOQdE Thanks! I hope you are having/have good luck with the rest of your decisions as well. And please bet freely to make the market as accurate as possible, I will not take any offense at all, that's what I made the market for.
@prismatic All 3 have gone reasonably well. I had an engaging conversation with the Harvard interviewer and the NYU interviewer seemed very interested in me. UT Austin also went well, I believe the PI liked my answers to their questions.