Resolution criteria

This market resolves to the total number of federal by-elections held on December 7, 2026, in which the candidate nominated by the Liberal Party of Canada is officially declared the winner.

• Resolution will be based on certified results published by Elections Canada or on a consensus of credible media sources. If recounts are necessary in any of the contests, this market will not resolve until the recounts have been completed.

• Six federal by-elections are scheduled in Canada for December 7, 2026:

  1. Brantford—Brant South (Ontario)

  2. Scarborough North (Ontario)

  3. Laurier—Sainte-Marie (Quebec)

  4. Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie (Quebec)

  5. Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton (Quebec)

  6. Yorkton—Melville (Saskatchewan)

• The outcome will resolve to an integer between 0 and 6, corresponding to how many of these six ridings elect a Liberal MP.

Background

Brantford—Brant South voted Conservative in 2025 with 52% of the vote, with the Liberals in second on 41%.

Scarborough North voted Liberal in 2025 with 63% of the vote, with the Conservatives in second on 33%.

Laurier—Sainte-Marie voted Liberal in 2025 with 52% of the vote, with the NDP in second on 19%.

Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie voted NDP in 2025 with 41% of the vote, with the Liberals in second on 22%.

Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton voted Bloc Québécois in 2025 with 44% of the vote, with the Liberals in second on 34%.

Yorkton—Melville voted Conservative in 2025 with 78% of the vote, with the Liberals in second on 14%.

As resolution is unlikely to be ambiguous, I may trade in this market.