Will Estonia ban caged hen egg farms before 2025?

In September of 2023, Estonian animal welfare organization Nähtamatud Loomad (Invisible Animals) revealed shocking footage of the treatment of chickens in 3 different caged hen egg farms taken secretly by an undercover operative working within the facilities.

The organization started a petition to ban caged hen egg farms which has gained more than 14,000 e-signatures, which is more than 1% of the population of Estonia. Petitions that get more than 1,000 signatures have be brought up for discussion in the parliament.

Website of the campaign (in Estonian): https://www.eestipuurikana.nahtamatudloomad.ee/

Estonia's parliament voted to ban fur farms in 2021, which was also an effort of animal welfare organizations for several years. The bill however failed to pass votes in 2017 and 2019.

The EU banned barren cages for chickens in 2012, so caged egg hen farms in the EU need to use "enriched" cages. This market is about banning the enriched cages as well. These farms have already been voted to be banned in Denmark, Austria, Luxembourg, Switzerland, Germany, Czechia, Slovakia and France.

Resolves YES if caged hen egg farms are voted to be banned in Estonia before 1st January 2025. This can either be due to a parliamentary vote or an EU-wide ban. This includes if there is a transitional period and farms have to actually shut down at a future date in 2025 or later, which is simlar to what happened with fur farms.

Resolves NO on 1st January 2025 if caged hen farms have not been voted to be banned in Estonia.

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Buying no in light of the EU revision falling flat. Petition against cage eggs look good, but not sure what priors should be? Perhaps less than 40%

predicts YES

They got 21421 signatures and handed them formally over to the president of the Riigikogu: https://www.err.ee/1609225731/galerii-riigikogu-esimees-sai-petitsiooni-kanade-puurispidamise-keelustamiseks

How does this resolve if the EU revision gets passed?

@ElliotDavies If caged hen farms are banned throughout the EU, this resolves yes.

@andri does the law need to be enacted upon?

@ElliotDavies No, since this will immediately resolve yes even if they vote for a ban to happen in the future.