🏅 Top traders

Everyone:

See the comment below about why this market has been re-resolved.

@Eliza Thanks a lot!

@Eliza i guess we’re not counting the creator’s held positions in the market.

@mattyb i think that would create an infinitely recursive loop, and it's not what the description said

@mattyb I fully considered this interpretation but upon carefully reading the market description, it seems like it is entirely based upon trader bonuses and does not mention trading at all.

There is a dangerous "impossible to say" element to allowing the creator's own betting profits in, as well. Calculating this could result in a complete server meltdown.

Sorry for your loss.

I sure would like this to be overturned since I was 100% sure by the end that this should resolve ``make mana'', which is why I put my entire balance into it

It's easy, we can do a breakdown.

Costs:

• You paid 75 mana to create the question

Income:

• You got 25 unique bettor bonuses, each one paying 5 mana, totaling 125 mana

Refund:

• When the market closes, you will get some portion of your creation fee back as excess liquidity returned to the creator, depending on which option you choose. This will always be a positive amount.

Since you got paid out 125 mana plus the refund amount, and only paid in 75, you definitely made money on creation.

You will lose a lot of mana when it resolves against the way you bet, but the description doesn't talk about that. It talks about how many trader bonuses you get over a period of 30 days.

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I consulted the guidelines:

If the creator is a large benefactor of an ambiguously resolved market then give them the benefit of the doubt the first time with a warning unless it’s very obvious it’s fraudulent. If it’s fraudulent or a repeat infraction, N/A if ambiguous or correct it if there is a correct resolution and report it to the admins for potential fines/bans.

Since you're the large benefactor of an ambiguously resolved market, I'm supposed to give you the benefit of the doubt the first time with a warning.

If literally no one agrees with your interpretation of the result, this is likely to get re-resolved to "Make mana". But I'll at least give you a chance to explain how you possibly lost mana. @andrewperrett

@Eliza Can you resolve this please? The creator seems unresponsive.

@JaimeSantaCruz I guess we can do that. I think there's still some chance they show up and come up with a convincing tale that requires a re-re-re-re-resolution but I don't want to leave this as pending forever.

So, can we have this overturned?

If you look at their league profile, it clearly shows 105M of trader bonuses.

@DottedCalculator Just checked this, and it’s the only question that you can see on his profile.

There are a total of 15 traders that the creator received bonuses for (18 total traders, but two are bots and one is the creator himself, which don't cause trader bonuses). But unique trader bonuses are awarded per-option, and many traders bet on multiple options, so the total bonuses received were more than 75 mana. Therefore, I think it should resolve to "Make mana". I don't see any interpretation of the title or description that would make "lose mana" correct. What was the reason for resolving it this way, @andrewperrett?

@andrewperrett the description is relatively clear, you got 18 traders which is >15, why did it resolve to "lose mana"?

@SemioticRivalry @SirCryptomind @PlasmaBallin can you or any other mod look into this market? I think the resolution is wrong.

18 traders -> lose mana? I'm not seeing the logic here.

please resolve

@andrewperrett this one’s ready to be resolved

@andrewperrett do you only count trader bonuses, or any causal event that leads to you making up your losses in terms of the cost of the market creation itself?

@Bayesian oh, the math here gets really funky. So he’s obviously net positive when it comes to trader bonuses now. Each of the answers is above 5.

Now Andrew’s got a huge YES position on Lose Mana. If he didn’t have that position, losing him mana, Make Mana would simply resolve yes.

If we’re assessing this now, he’s lost money, as his temporary positions put him at a loss (Lose mana is at 3% at time of posting). If he Resolves “Lose mana” as YES, he’ll actually be making mana….

I don’t think there’s a simple answer here, as the time of assessment will be incredibly important

@mattyb I count 16 trader bonuses, that's 80M. trader bonuses from bots or himself don't count, right? so it's super close and if i miscounted it could break even or lose mana idk

@Bayesian I count 18 traders, what is the deal with this resolution? The description said over 15 it made him money. Nothing about bots not counting. Any mods can check on this?

@JaimeSantaCruz idk, @andrewperrett could you address this?

@Bayesian @andrewperrett , @Joshua, please take a look at this market

@JaimeSantaCruz wait, yeah, the description of this market is vague in general
honestly might be better to just N/A it but "lose mana" is definitely wrong