This market predicts whether Amit will fail to repay his loan by the end of the loan term. Failure to repay includes ONLY missing the final loan expiration payment. Resolution will be based on official loan statements or confirmation from the lender, lendee or both.
Any loan extensions must be approved by both parties and publicly stated on this market or manifold discord.
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Amit fails to fully repay any loan by the end of its term. Failure to repay includes:
Missing the final payment ONLY
Resolution will be based on official loan statements or confirmation from the lender or borrower.
This market will resolve to "No" if Amit doesnt owe any loans for 30 consecutive days.
Background
It's important to note that the exact terms and conditions regarding default are specified in the loan agreement which are screenshotted and shared to my loan officers.
Loan profile info - amitbhalesha.substack.com/p/loan-me-mana
CURRENT LOANS
May 8th 2025 - Ṁ2000 @Robincvgr - 3500 due October 8 2025
May 8th 2025 - Ṁ2000 @GastonKessler - (IMF) in exchange for Ṁ3333 on May 8th 2027
May 8th 2025 - Ṁ1,000 @Nightsquared - 3138 mana due 5/8/26
May 8th 2025 - Ṁ1,500 @Odoacre - 10%/mo interest, 12mo
May 7th 2025 - Ṁ1,500 @spiderduckpig - 10%/mo interest, 12mo
Update 2025-05-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that if a loan is repaid by a third party on Amit's behalf, the lenders will jointly decide whether this scenario constitutes Amit having failed to repay the loan for the purposes of this market's resolution.
1,000People are also trading
@Bayesian i'm wondering if i can accumulate a big enough position that if this guy goes inactive or becomes insolvent, it becomes profitable for me to save everything myself
@amitiscool it seems like it would be in our interest for our loans to be paid off by any means available