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The public basically never got a full picture of GPT4 capabilities. As a result of quantization/distillation/expert routing tricks speeding it up, plus whatever safety ablations got applied, it's common consensus that March 2023 GPT4 and whatever Microsoft exposed via Sydney-era Bing was significantly better than what's accessible today.
This market resolves based on people's Twitter/Discord vibes comparing 405B (instruct or base) against what they remember from then.
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https://x.com/repligate/status/1824179931057930617
Hermes-405B finetune in particular seems to have hit the same category of weird as Sydney did.
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