What price will Bitcoin have on the day of its next halving, scheduled around May 2024?
Basic
16
Ṁ130k
resolved Apr 20
100%99.8%
Higher than $60,000
0.0%
Lower than $19,999
0.0%
Between $20,000 and $29,999
0.1%
Between $30,000 and $59,999

Date is set on May 1st, 2024. It could be moved accordingly when the halving schedule will be more accurate.

Price is considered in US dollars on Coinbase.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

Resolves to "Higher than $60,000".

The halving happened at 2024-04-20 00:09 UTC:

https://timechaincalendar.com/en/block/840000

And the price was over 60k at that time:

https://www.coinbase.com/en/price/bitcoin/usd

If it trades both above and below 60k on the day of the halving, do the two options resolve at 50%?

Or do you use price at time of halving or something else?

@ChristopherRandles Creator is banned.

In the absence of any arguments to the contrary, I say we should go with price at halving time (as close as is possible to determine) according to Yahoo Finance: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/

It's possible people betting on markets like this might be thinking about price changes immediately in the lead up to, or immediately following the halving, in which case opening or closing price (midnight UTC) might make sense - people should chime in if they thing that would be batter. But it seems like price at halving is the most obvious thing to resolve on.

Please stop spamming links to this in ads

Comment hidden
Comment hidden
Comment hidden
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules