On the All-In Podcast (January 10, 2026), Chamath Palihapitiya said:
“I don’t think SpaceX will IPO. I think that it will reverse merge into Tesla, and I think Elon will use it as a moment to consolidate control and power of his two seminal assets into one cap table.”

Market question
By December 31, 2026 (23:59 ET), will SpaceX be combined into Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) such that Tesla is the public parent of SpaceX?

Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if, on or before the resolution date:

• A completed transaction results in Tesla being the publicly traded parent company of SpaceX

The transaction may be a merger, reverse merger, reorganization, or similar structure that results in one consolidated public-company cap table under Tesla.

This market resolves NO if, by the resolution date:

• SpaceX completes a standalone IPO (including direct listing or SPAC), or

• SpaceX remains a private, independent company, or

• No transaction occurs that makes Tesla the public parent of SpaceX, or

• SpaceX combines with or becomes public through an entity other than Tesla.

Primary resolution sources

• Tesla SEC filings

• Official Tesla or SpaceX press releases