Yes if:

• One specific pathogen (viral, fungal, or bacterial) causes 200,000+ U.S. hospitalizations

• Hospitalizations occur within Jan 15 - Apr 15, 2026

• Confirmed by CDC or state health department data

NO if:

• Threshold not met by April 15

• No single pathogen reaches 200,000 individually

• No official data avail
  
  

Data Sources: CDC Hospital Respiratory Data, FluView, COVID Data Tracker, MMWR, or state health departments

Resolution Date: April 30, 2025 (allows for data lag)

What Counts: Any single viral, fungal, or bacterial pathogen causing 200K+ hospitalizations (includes the flu, new COVID variants, novel diseases, etc.)

What Doesn't Count: Multiple diseases combined, non-infectious causes, or aggregate totals without single pathogen attribution

Edge Cases

• Normal flu surge? YES if it reaches 200K+ hospitalizations

• COVID variant? YES if that variant causes 200K+ new hospitalizations

• Disease from abroad? YES if it causes 200K+ U.S. hospitalizations

• Two diseases at 110K each? NO - must be single pathogen