On April 16 2024, Paul Christiano was named Head of AI Safety at the AI Safety Institute, part of the US National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST).

Will he retain this role for a year? If AISI shuts down, this will resolve No. If his role changes but he remains in a leadership position at AISI, that will not cause this question to resolve No. I will not trade on this market.

Whichever of Biden/Trump don't win will resolve N/A.

Related: /ahalekelly/will-trump-shut-down-the-us-ai-safe

• Update 2025-04-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): AISI Renaming Clarification:

  • AISI Name Change: If the institute is renamed but continues to conduct essentially the same activities, it will still qualify as AISI for this question.