Conditional on legislative approval, will the Chilean people approve the new proposal for a constitution?
34
708Ṁ23k
resolved Dec 18
Resolved
NO

Update: This market resolves strictly according to the official results of the Chilean National Plebiscite on Sunday 17th of December.

The major political parties of Chile just reached an agreement to draft a new constitution written by a mixed body of experts and elected constituents.

Assuming this agreement will be formalized by law, what's the probability that this new proposal gets approved by the Chilean people?

If the process doesn't get approved by congress or otherwise the final vote doesn't happen, this will resolve to N/A.

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predictedNO

Just because I'm a sworn institutionalist, I'll wait until the Electoral Service certifies the official results 🫡

99.3% in:

predictedNO

predictedNO

predictedNO

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https://x.com/servelchile official results will appear here.

@agucova, you should close this market on December 17th because final results should be known near 18:00 hours GMT -3

predictedNO

@JaimeSantaCruz Done! Incidentally, I'll be on a transoceanic flight most of the day (because I'm a terrible Chilean, I know) so I might resolve the market a bit later than the official announcement by SERVEL

predictedNO

@agucova It depends on wether you would have voted a favor or en contra…

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@JaimeSantaCruz that I shall not speak about

predictedNO

@d ???

predictedNO

@JaimeSantaCruz actually, I did not give much thought to this reply, but actually, the market close date doesn't matter. We can enjoy seeing the market swing around based on last-minute polls; I'm bumping it to the next day

predictedNO

@agucova So be it.

@agucova no credits :(

predictedNO

props to @d for criticizing my decision (?)

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