Will Chile have a new Constitution approved until the end of 2023?
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resolved Dec 18
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NO
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predictedNO

@BernardoChrispimBaron does this resolve immediately upon the results of the current referendum, or are you going to wait until end of year, on the off-chance of some other constitutional change in the next two weeks?

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https://x.com/servelchile official results will appear here.

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Another pretty consistent pollster explaining their results: 45% YES / 53% NO (it’s the other way around for this market)

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Latest poll from Activa Research. Blue line is “A favor” (Yes), red line is “En contra” (No). No more polls until ballot day, by law, but some “private” polling allowed.

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Last week poll from Cadem / Plaza Pública

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Also, it will be voted on December the 17th, and official results will very likely be available on the same day, so @BernardoChrispimBaron might want to close it that evening.

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“According to recent surveys, there is significant indecision among voters, with 53% of Chileans still undecided about their vote in the December constitutional referendum. Among those who have already taken a stance, 30% will vote against the new Constitution, while only 8% are in favor. Of those opting for 'Against', 49% identify with the left. Regarding interest in the constitutional process, 24% are 'very or quite interested', the same percentage 'somewhat interested', and 47% 'little or not at all interested'.

Regarding the assessment of the constitutional process initiated in March 2023, 47% rate it as ‘bad or very bad’, 33% as ‘neither good nor bad’, and 11% as ‘very good’“

I assign a higher accuracy to this poll, because it uses an “in person / live” methodology instead of relaying on internet panels or phone calls.

Still, the numbers differ too much from the more frequent polling made by Cadem.

https://www.pauta.cl/actualidad/2023/11/20/aun-hay-indecisos-encuesta-cep-muestra-que-un-53-aun-no-decide-si-votar-a-favor-o-en-contra-en-el-plebiscito.html

November 6th polling results

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