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MANIFOLD
Rank the options!
3
Ṁ100Ṁ8.7k
resolved Sep 14
ResolvedN/A
14%
1
34%
2
30%
3
22%
4

Whichever option closes 1st highest resolves YES, 2nd highest 75%, 3rd highest 25%, 4th highest resolves No

Ripping off @121 's question

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manifold mods are on the ball!

bought Ṁ10 YES

please create a non independent market so options can resolve in the way you described they would

bought Ṁ2 YES

yo what... these probabilities sum to 100% no matter what... so if they resolve like that it's guaranteed 100% profit... @agi202something

is this the case?!?!?!?!

@bobalobascrob Not quite. You profit if you buy shares such that you don't over/undershoot where it resolves. If you believe an answer will resolve 50%, and it currently sits at 75%, you will profit from buying NO to 50%, but overshooting it and going past that will start netting a loss of mana for shares bought past that point.

@Quroe Is this really possible on a dependent market?

Oh. Uh.

Bayesian pulled the trigger before I could. Haha