By 2024-10-01, will ChatGPT Plus users be able to generate >=10 seconds of video?
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i'm not betting on this market

if ChatGPT stops existing as a product => N/A

resolves based on state at market close time. if answer becomes "yes", that doesn't immediately trigger resolution. if, say, openai deploys this in August but rolls it back in September, and it stays off by 2024-10-01, that's a "no".

Video has to be generated from an OpenAI model. Not via calling an external API with code execution.

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Does this include cases where ChatGPT Plus has a video generation tool with a set number of generations per time period? With payment per generation? What if OpenAI has a payment-per-generation or video-generation subscription but not restricted to ChatGPT Plus users?

predicts YES

Video is the logical next step after DALL-E. Pika and Runway can already generate like 5 seconds or something of video, imagine what the current top leader combined with the gigantic financial and technological support from Microsoft could do. ~10 months from now is a long time in the current technological timescale.

https://sites.research.google/videopoet/

VideoPoet is a simple modeling method that can convert any autoregressive language model or large language model (LLM) into a high-quality video generator.

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