Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if, before January 1, 2028, Apple officially announces, or credible financial/tech news organizations report, that Apple has contracted for, purchased, or begun commercially sourcing memory chips from a supplier headquartered in mainland China for use in commercially distributed Apple products.

• “Sourcing” means procuring chips intended for commercial mass production. Chips used solely for engineering validation, design validation, internal testing, prototypes, or other non-public products do not count.

• Memory chips include DRAM, NAND flash, HBM, or other semiconductor memory.

• Eligible suppliers include, but are not limited to, ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) and Yangtze Memory Technologies Corporation (YMTC).

• If no such sourcing arrangement is officially confirmed or credibly reported by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM PT, the market will resolve to NO.

Does not count:

• Chips made in China by Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, Kioxia, or another supplier not headquartered in mainland China.

• Apple merely testing, evaluating, or lobbying for permission to use Chinese memory chips.

• Rumors framed only as “may,” “could,” or “is considering.”

Background

Apple has historically relied on a trio of non-Chinese suppliers—Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron Technology—for the vast majority of its DRAM and NAND flash needs. However, surging global memory prices and tight capacity driven by AI data center demand have squeezed Apple's profit margins, forcing the company to hike prices on iPads and MacBooks.

In June 2026, reports surfaced that Apple is lobbying the U.S. government for clearance to buy memory chips from CXMT. While purchasing from Chinese memory makers is not legally prohibited, both CXMT and YMTC reside on the Pentagon's 1260H "Chinese Military Company" blacklist, exposing Apple to significant political and regulatory risks if it moves forward without explicit political backing. Apple previously abandoned a plan to use YMTC chips in 2022 following intense pressure from U.S. lawmakers. This market tracks whether geopolitical headwinds or supply chain economics will dictate Apple's sourcing strategy over the next year and a half.