The United States is one of the few countries with citizenship-based taxation (CBT, also called "expat tax"). Under CBT, American citizens abroad still owe U.S. income and capital-gains tax on worldwide earnings.

In December 2024, Rep. Darin LaHood (R-IL) introduced H.R. 10468 — the Residence-Based Taxation for Americans Abroad Act, which would let U.S. citizens living overseas elect to be taxed only on U.S.-source income. As of late 2025, the bill has not advanced.

This market will resolve YES if, by December 31st, 2030, a U.S. federal law or regulation takes effect that substantively ends citizenship-based income and capital-gains taxation for Americans abroad, meaning at least one of the following applies:

1. Residence-based taxation is enacted (e.g., H.R. 10468 or successor) so that Americans abroad are taxed only on U.S.-source income; or

2. A reform (treaty-based or statutory) exempts at least 70 % of U.S. citizens living abroad from U.S. income and capital-gains tax on foreign-source income (for example, limited to residents of countries with U.S. tax treaties or limited to OECD countries); or

3. Treasury/IRS implements rules that eliminate CBT in practice, e.g. an automatic exclusion or election that makes foreign-source income non-taxable.

In case of one of the above, the market will resolve YES even if an exit tax is kept in place as long as CBT is ineffective after paying this exit tax. The market will also resolve YES even if reporting requirements are kept in place.

The market will resolve NO if, by the resolution date, U.S. citizens abroad remain generally liable for U.S. income or capital-gains tax on foreign-source income, even if compliance is eased, exemptions widened or rates lowered. Minor procedural or administrative tweaks (e.g., higher Foreign Earned Income Exclusion, new credits) do not count.

Estate, inheritance, and gift taxes are explicitly excluded from this market. Only income and capital-gains taxation are relevant.

Resolution sources: U.S. federal legislation, Treasury/IRS guidance, or credible reporting from major outlets or Big 4 tax firms.