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I think it's safe to resolve it as NO after all the recent events.

Anyone who watched Joe Rogan podcast could confirm that it seems that is Zuck the one who actually chickened out.

https://youtu.be/w7dgYo8hr60

@adriangalilea just to confirm, since you've said "for any reason", if the fight doesn't go ahead, it has to be the case that one or both participants "chickened out", by your definition, right? As in, if you had two markets on this, one for Musk and one for Zuck, and the fight didn't go ahead, then we should expect at least one, if not both of those markets to resolve YES, is that right?

@chrisjbillington 2 people can’t chicken out on a fight.

It has to be Elon that initiates cancelling it for whatever reason. If it’s mutual it is not “chickened out” unless they mutually agree after Elon initiates the cancellation.

To sum it up, it has to be Elon initiating the cancellation of the event for any reason even seemingly valid excuse. Even if medical, it counts as “chicken out” because he obv can fabricate any medical backup for example.

@adriangalilea If both musk and zuck say they're cancelling though?

@ShadowyZephyr Yeah this is what I'm getting at. "for any reason at all" is quite broad, and includes scenarios where parties may both claim that each other or neither is chickening out. It's fine that these things are sometimes a judgement call, though you (@adriangalilea) do hold a position in this market which makes it tricky :p.

@ShadowyZephyr anything that is not initiated by musk counts as no.

If they both say they're cancelling but the reason is initiated, brought up, you name it, by musk, then it's chicken out.

Another hypothetical, imagine Elon get's a surgery and shouldn't fight, imagine then that both of them say they are cancelling it due Elon's surgery.

This counts as chicken out.

🔮 My very specific call is a story in 3 acts:

1. He will get surgery

2. He will pretend to want to fight anyway

3. He will use medical advice as excuse to cancel

I’m buying No calls simply due the rate. My prediction in a vacuum is above. Will pivot on a better rate.

Duplicate of https://manifold.markets/ChristopherKing/will-either-man-back-out-of-the-elo?r=Q2hyaXN0b3BoZXJLaW5n

Will either man back out of the Elon Musk v.s. Mark Zuckerberg cage match?

See https://www.bbc.com/news/business-65981876 for context. I will use my best judgement for number 3. [link preview]